Monday, November 16, 2015

it's flood seaon. Now for round 2

I've been watching the weather and we have another flood event forcast.  the last flood event was forcast originally as peaking around 12', but eventually ended up peaking at 14.72 feet, about 8" below the all-time record flood ever record.  that's pretty high.  It was the 7th deepest flood in the 80 or so years of records for this river.  That's a pretty big flood.

This coming up, the forecast graph is pictured above, is starting a lot bigger; it's forcast to be 14', and given that we exceeded our last forcast, there's some chance that it'll be bigger.

I think that it will be.  Here's why:

On the 12th the snow level dropped to 1500 or so feet; and the rain that's been coming down has been falling as snow in higher elevations (I'm at about 80' above sea level I think).  But the next storm forcast will bring in as much rain as the first storm - and the snow level will rise to an estimated 7,000' -- which means that all of the accumulated snow will be hit with a warm ran, and it's all going to come come the valleys pretty quickly.

Add to that the fact that the ground is absolutely saturated - some of the last rain soaked in and didn't make it to the river.  This one, and all that melted snow, will if the forecasts are accurate.

And they're forecasting 50 to 70mph winds.  Soaked ground and high winds mean trees are going down this time.

So a check of the house generator, put aside 10 gallons of fresh gasoline and extra chains for the chainsaw, and make sure that all of the animals are accounted for.  

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