Thursday, February 2, 2017

Long term weather forecasts

I look at the long term weather forecasts every year at this time to see if there's anything that it shows me.  Given that the forecasts are months in advance, there's no guarantee that they'll come through, but I figure it's better than flipping a coin, and I'm hoping that a couple of hundred years of studying the weather has made our forecasts more accurate over time :)

NOAA Long term weather forecast site
Click on the caption below the picture to get to the site. 
The long term forecast shows a slightly greater chance of warmer-than-usual weather this summer, and that bodes well for my planned corn crop, which gives me a little more leeway in the seed choice I make.  

I don't really trust the forecasts all that much, but it is nice to have a rational reason for making a pick, even if it's a pick that I would have made on gut feeling alone :)

1 comment:

Bill Gauch said...

On one hand, our forecasts for extra long range times (1-2 months) are actually much, much more accurate. On the other hand, our short (< 72 hours) term forecasts are much less accurate but much more precise. However, when you consider a recent forecast here which said, 8-15" of snow, starting between 3 and 6 a.m., it was very precise. However, it didn't start snowing in my area until noon. This is an entirely unhelpful forecast. Now, looking at longer term forecasts will probably be of much more value than watching the weather for tomorrow. However, longer term forecasts factor in prevailing wind/weather patterns and averages. So, essentially, the longer term forecasts are not much different than a look at historical averages for whatever time period you are interested.